Evaluating ecosystem models
Earth observation data provides the most comprehensive coverage
available to initialise, update or validate numerical models.
Information on the initiation, duration and intensity of plankton
spring blooms and the location and strength of ocean fronts can be
inferred from individual images and time sequences. These can be
related to the distribution and reproductive success of marine
populations including fish. This information can then be used to
assess the accuracy of models, either in hindcast mode or
short-term forecasts.
PML is leading work in the application of numerical ecosystem
models for the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework
Directive (MSFD) and making a direct input to the development of
indicators of good ecological status. In collaboration with the
International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) we are
assessing the ability of models to hindcast and project future
indicator states. These indicators are then being used to drive
management strategy evaluation tools. The work will ultimately
support the implementation of the MSFD and the common fisheries
policy.
Projects
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European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model
(ERSEM)
ERSEM was developed in the 1990s to
simulate carbon and nutrient cycling and ecosystem response in
European shelf seas and PML was part of the original consortium
which developed it. Since the end of the original programme PML
scientists have been developing the original model and developing
applications in a number of fields. ERSEM is currently one of
the most complex lower trophic level models currently in use and
its philosophy is to include all processes that may significantly
influence ecosystem dynamics.