Forecasting
In order to manage the marine environment effectively it is
important to be able to forecast how it will respond to possible
future climatic changes. Models can be used to study how the marine
ecosystem will respond to future climate change and how potential
climate mitigation strategies may in turn affect the ecosystem. It
is also possible to ascertain how individual climatic and
anthropogenic drivers affect the environment and demonstrate what
mechanisms are responsible for the changes in the simulated
ecosystems.
PML’s modelling activities focus on the recent past and two
particular periods: the next 20-30 years, which is the period of
most concern for policy and ecosystem management; and beyond 2050,
the point at which the climate is expected to be markedly changed
from current conditions. Over such a large timescale, small
uncertainties within models can a have a dramatic effect upon
projections; therefore PML is working to reduce and quantify model
uncertainties to allow realistic assessments of future ecosystem
states.
Projects
- EURO-BASIN
EURO-BASIN is designed to advance our
understanding of the variability, potential impacts and feedbacks
of global change and anthropogenic forcing on the structure,
function and dynamics of the North Atlantic and associated shelf
seas. PML leads the modelling activities which aim to
establish predictive capacities based on an ensemble approach
to develop understanding of the past, present and future dynamics
of North Atlantic and shelf sea ecosystems.