People > Dr Susan Kay

Dr Susan Kay

Numerical Modeller

Contact Details

+44 (0)1752 633100 (switchboard)


Dr Susan Kay is a marine ecosystem modeller, working on 3D numerical models for various regions of the world. Currently her interests focus around producing models that will be of value to decision-makers in the fields of marine conservation, fisheries protection and poverty alleviation. She works on both multi-decade projections, which can give insight into the implications of climate change for the marine ecosystem, and short-term runs enhanced by data assimilation, which can assist with monitoring the present state of regional seas.

As part of her PML role, Susan also works at the Met Office, providing science leadership in marine biogeochemistry.

Susan joined PML in January 2012. Prior to this she studied for a PhD at the University of Exeter, using a numerical model of the sea surface to investigate how reflected sunlight can contaminate satellite images of marine environments. Originally trained in physics, she has experience in a range of scientific areas and in education.


GCRF Blue Communities

GCRF Blue Communities

Contact: Professor Melanie Austen

GCRF Blue Communities is a 4 year research capacity-building programme for marine planning in East and South-East (E/SE) Asia, funded by UK...


Tools for Assessment and Planning of Aquaculture Sustainability (TAPAS)

Contact: Stefan Simis

The Tools for Assessment and Planning of Aquaculture Sustainability (TAPAS) project is working to create cost-efficient management tools and...

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Other key projects

  • CERES - advancing a cause-and-effect understanding of how climate change will affect European fisheries and aquaculture (EU Horizon 2020, 2016-2020)
  • DECCMA - the impact of climate change in three developing-world deltas. (UK and Canadian Aid agencies, 2014-2018)
  • NOWMAPS – providing and improving model data for the European North West Shelf to the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (EC Copernicus-CMEMS, 2015-2018)
  • TAPAS – developing tools, approaches and frameworks to support a regulatory framework for sustainable aquaculture (EU Horizon 2020, 2016-2020)

Recent publications

  • Barange, M; Fernandes, JA; Kay, S; Hossain, MAR; Ahmed, M; Lauria, V. 2018 Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries: Trends and Prospects. In: Nicholls, RJ; Hutton, CW; Adger, WN; Hanson, SE; Rahman, MM; Salehin, M, (eds.) Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas. Cham, Springer International Publishing, 469-488, 20pp.
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  • Kay, S; Caesar, J; Janes, T. 2018 Marine Dynamics and Productivity in the Bay of Bengal. In: Nicholls, RJ; Hutton, Craig W; Adger, W Neil; Hanson, Susan E; Rahman, MM; Salehin, M, (eds.) Ecosystem Services for Well-Being in Deltas. Cham, Switzerland, Palgrave Macmillan, 263-275, 593pp.
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  • Queiros, AM; Huebert, KB; Keyl, F; Fernandes, JA; Stolte, W; Maar, M; Kay, S; Jones, MC; Hamon, KG; Hendriksen, G; Vermard, Y; Marchal, P; Teal, LR; Somerfield, PJ; Austen, MC; Barange, M; Sell, AF; Allen, JI; Peck, MA. 2016 Solutions for ecosystem-level protection of ocean systems under climate change. Global Change Biology, 22. 3927-3936. 10.1111/gcb.13423
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  • Payo, A; Mukhopadhyay, A; Hazra, S; Ghosh, T; Ghosh, S; Brown, S; Nicholls, R; Bricheno, L; Wolf, J; Kay, S; Lázár, A; Haque, A. 2016 Projected changes in area of the Sundarban mangrove forest in Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100. Climatic Change, 139 (2). 279-291. 10.1007/s10584-016-1769-z
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  • Kay, S; Caesar, J; Wolf, J; Bricheno, L; Nicholls, RJ; Saiful Islam, AKM; Haque, A; Pardaens, A; Lowe, JA. 2015 Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change [in special issue: ESPA Deltas] Environ. Sci.: Processes Impacts, 17 (7). 1311-1322. 10.1039/C4EM00683F
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  • Kay, S; Butenschon, M. 2018 Projections of change in key ecosystem indicators for planning and management of marine protected areas: An example study for European seas. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 201. 172-184. 10.1016/j.ecss.2016.03.003
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Selected key publications

Fernandes, J.A., Kay, S., Hossain, M.A.R., Ahmed, M., Cheung, W.W.L., Lazar, A.N., Barange, M., (2015). Projecting marine fish production and catch potential in Bangladesh in the 21st century under long-term environmental change and management scenarios. ICES J. Mar. Sci. J. Cons. fsv217. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsv217